Top Performing Decklists
| Deck | Creator | Record | Best Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gruul Aggro | mogged | 9-1 | 1st in MTGO Standard Challenge 32 #12769892 |
Performance Stats (Last 14 Days)
Win Rate Impact
Top Table Win Rate
Meta Trend
Sample Size
Tournament Results
Average Copies
Archetypes Using This Card:
4 Color Beanstalk , Gruul Aggro , Gruul Forge , Izzet Spellslingers , Jeskai Equipments , Jund Beanstalk
Meta Performance Analysis
Hearth Elemental ranks #387 out of approximately 406 cards in raw efficiency (top 95%).
Game Impact Factor
Color Differential
Red average: 62.1%
Performance compared to other Red cardsBased on our comprehensive multi-metric analysis, Hearth Elemental is an underperforming card in the current meta.
Recommended number of copies: 1
Win Rate Timeline
Card Efficiency Analysis
Raw Efficiency (Win Rate/Mana)
Relative Efficiency
Performance Efficiency: 7.83 (Win rate × Top 8 rate ÷ Mana value)
At 6 mana, the average win rate in the format is 77.3%. Hearth Elemental has a win rate of 74.4%, making it 3.7% worse than other 6-mana cards.
Top Performing Partners
| Card Name | Type | Deck Count | Win Rate | 1st Places |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pawpatch Recruit | Creature — Rabbit Warrior | 7 | 77.5% | 3 |
| Lithomantic Barrage | Sorcery | 12 | 75.4% | 4 |
| Might of the Meek | Instant | 9 | 74.5% | 3 |
| Heritage Reclamation | Instant | 6 | 73.7% | 2 |
| Urabrask's Forge | Artifact | 7 | 73.4% | 4 |
| Emberheart Challenger | Creature — Mouse Warrior | 10 | 73.3% | 3 |
| Heartfire Hero | Creature — Mouse Soldier | 10 | 73.3% | 3 |
| Monastery Swiftspear | Creature — Human Monk | 19 | 72.9% | 7 |
| Monstrous Rage | Instant | 19 | 72.9% | 7 |
| Cori-Steel Cutter | Artifact — Equipment | 19 | 72.9% | 7 |
Card Synergy Analysis
Cards that perform better with Hearth Elemental than they do on average. A positive synergy score indicates stronger performance together.
| Card Name | Type | Mana | Decks | Win Rate Together | Win Rate Apart | Synergy Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urabrask's Forge | Artifact | 3 | 5 | 81.8% | 76.4% | +5.4% |
| Stormchaser's Talent | Enchantment — Class | 1 | 9 | 79.2% | 75.6% | +3.5% |
| Pawpatch Recruit | Creature — Rabbit Warrior | 1 | 7 | 76.6% | 73.8% | +2.8% |
| Slickshot Show-Off | Creature — Bird Wizard | 2 | 9 | 79.2% | 76.7% | +2.5% |
| Spell Pierce | Instant | 1 | 9 | 78.2% | 75.7% | +2.5% |
| Opt | Instant | 1 | 9 | 79.2% | 76.8% | +2.4% |
| Sleight of Hand | Sorcery | 1 | 9 | 79.2% | 77.2% | +2.0% |
| Pawpatch Formation | Instant | 2 | 8 | 75.9% | 74.0% | +1.9% |
| Into the Flood Maw | Instant | 1 | 9 | 78.2% | 76.4% | +1.8% |
| Lithomantic Barrage | Sorcery | 1 | 12 | 73.0% | 73.6% | -0.5% |
Top Archetypes
| Archetype | Deck Count | % of Archetype | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gruul Aggro | 10 | 0.5% | 72.4% |
| Izzet Spellslingers | 9 | 6.3% | 72.4% |
| 4 Color Beanstalk | 6 | 30.0% | 42.4% |
| Gruul Forge | 3 | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Jeskai Equipments | 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Statistics Explanation
| Statistic | Description | Formula |
|---|---|---|
| Win Rate Impact | How much this card increases or decreases the win rate of decks that include it, compared to the average deck in the format. | (Win rate of decks with this card) - (Average win rate of all decks) |
| Top Table Win Rate | A weighted win rate that gives more significance to performance in higher tournament placements. First place finishes count for 2x, with diminishing weight down to 8th place. | ∑(wins × placement_weight) / ∑((wins + losses) × placement_weight) |
| Meta Trend | Shows if the card is performing better or worse in the most recent period compared to earlier periods. Positive values indicate improving performance. | (Win rate in recent half of time period) - (Win rate in earlier half of time period) |
| Confidence Factor | A measure of statistical reliability based on sample size. The progress bar indicates how confident we are in the statistics (with larger sample sizes providing higher confidence). | log10(Number of decks + 1) |
| Average Copies | The average number of copies of this card included in decks that use it. | ∑(Copies in each deck) / (Number of decks) |
| Card Synergy Score | Measures how well this card performs with other cards compared to their individual performance. | (Win rate together) - (Average of individual win rates) |
| Raw Efficiency | Win rate points per mana invested. Higher values indicate better returns on mana investment. | (Win rate) / (Mana value) |
| Relative Efficiency | How efficient this card is compared to the average card of the same mana value. | ((Win rate) / (Format average win rate for same mana)) / (Mana value) |
| Performance Efficiency | Combined metric that accounts for win rate, tournament success, and mana investment. | (Win rate × Top 8 placement rate) / (Mana value) |
| Game Impact Factor | A measure of how much this card affects game outcomes, based on win rate adjusted by its deviation from the format average. | Win rate × (1 + (Win rate - Format average) / 100) |
| Color Differential | How this card's win rate compares to the average win rate of other cards of the same color. | Win rate - Average win rate for same color |
All statistics are calculated using tournament data from the selected time period. Sample sizes below 10 decks may not provide statistically significant results.